New Aircraft Supply Constraints Expected to Persist Until 2030
Airlines worldwide are expected to face difficulties securing new aircraft until at least 2030. According to Cirium’s forecast, engine and component supply issues, along with certification delays, are making it harder for manufacturers to meet demand. Around 43,000 passenger and cargo aircraft are projected to be delivered to airlines between 2026 and 2045 for fleet expansion and replacement, with a total value of $3.2 trillion.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), cumulative aircraft deliveries were more than 5,000 behind schedule as of June 2026. Manufacturers’ order backlogs exceeded 18,000 aircraft, while the average age of the global fleet rose to 15.2 years. Delivery delays are forcing airlines to keep older aircraft in service longer, incur higher maintenance expenses and pay higher leasing costs. Supply chain disruptions are estimated to have cost the industry at least $11 billion in 2025.
Engine durability, spare parts availability and limited maintenance capacity are also affecting aircraft supply. Cirium forecasts that the global passenger aircraft fleet will grow from approximately 30,000 aircraft to more than 50,000 by 2045. However, growth in air transport is expected to become increasingly dependent on manufacturers’ delivery capacity.
